Forecasting what's ahead

New Haven, Conn. (WTNH) - Are we destined to have a repeat of last winter's snow? Our own Storm Team 8 experts weigh in.

"This winter I think it will be milder compared to last winter," says Storm Team 8 Meteorologist Steve Villanueva. "You never get two massive winter year back to back."

"The likelihood that it will be as bad as last year is slim to none," Storm Team 8 Meteorologist Erica Grow said.

But that doesn't mean we won't see snow. Just look back to Halloween weekend when snow blanketed parts of the state and tore apart our power lines.

The meteorology team monitors patterns for the upcoming winter. Some of those indicators are still being formed. Keeping an eye on the model data is one way we can prepare ahead of time.

"Some models will trend one way and another model will say something completely different," explained Grow. "So our job is to assess all that model data, plus look at what's going on with radar and satellite imagery, and put it all together and give it to you with the best outlooks to give you the most advanced warning that you can possibly get."

But computer models are only part of the equation.

"The other tool is experience," Storm Team 8 Meteorologist Steve MacLaughlin said. "Every single snowstorm we have gives us a little more knowledge - storm team 8 - every time there's a storm - gets better and better at forecasting storms."

And that's only the half of it. It's about communication and how to relay that information to the viewer.

"There's a way of keeping people safe without creating panic and that's really important," MacLaughlin said. "And there's also a way to tell the truth about what could truly happen.

And the truth is, record-breaker or not, winter storms are often impacted by what's happening off-shore. A fact that is not easily ignored.

"We get strong storms - fall and winter - some of the biggest ones that just sit and spin, and it's all about that direction," Meteorologist Gil Simmons said. "It can really play a role on those dangerous conditions along the sound."

As you can see, Long Island Sound can prove the perfect breeding ground for dangerous weather. That's a reality we'll tackle next week when we go behind the scenes with the U.S. Coast Guard.