An inside look at the 4th of July forecast

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(WTNH) — It’s still early, but we are already focusing in on the all-important 4th of July forecast for Connecticut. Overall, the weather pattern is pretty favorable for outdoor activities between Friday and Tuesday. The best bet for widespread rain/t-storms in CT is on Sunday, especially in the morning through early afternoon. You can expect warm and humid weather Friday through Sunday. It will turn less humid Monday and Tuesday, but stay seasonably warm.

A disturbance approaching from the west in the middle of next week may arrive in time for there to be showers and t-storms Tuesday afternoon and night. At this point, I’m leaning towards a dry day and evening, but it’s a close call. As you can see below, the Canadian and GFS (American) computer model threaten at least part of Connecticut with showers/storms by 8 pm on Tuesday. The European model, however, keeps the rain west of Connecticut.

ECMWF – European model

The chart graphic is from the European Ensemble Prediction System. You can see a noticeable uptick in precipitation in the middle of next week. That means there is a good chance that we’ll get some rain between Tuesday PM and Wednesday AM, but the timing of the showers is still questionable. Of course, the accuracy of the forecast should improve over the next few days. The disturbance that will bring the shower threat is thousands of miles away in the Pacific Ocean.

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