NEW HAVEN, Conn. (WTNH) — Election Day is Nov. 8, just two weeks away. News 8 teamed up with The Hill and Emerson College Polling to launch our third and final exclusive poll of the midterm election season.
The first race we focused on is the race for governor. Compared to our last poll, the margins are the same.
If the election for governor were held today, who would you vote for at this time?
| Frequency | Percent | Valid Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
| Democrat Ned Lamont | 521 | 52.1 | 52.1 | 52.1 |
| Republican Bob Stefanowski | 409 | 40.9 | 40.9 | 93.0 |
| Independent Party candidate Robert Hotaling | 11 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 94.1 |
| Someone else | 7 | .7 | .7 | 94.8 |
| Undecided | 52 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 100.0 |
| Total | 1000 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont maintains an 11-point lead over Republican Bob Stefanowski, 52% to 41%. Independent candidate Robert Hotaling gets 1% of the support. Five percent are undecided.
When it comes to favorability ratings, Lamont is the most favorable candidate on the ballot, with 57% having a favorable view of the governor while 41% have an unfavorable view of him.
Three percent are unsure of their view of the governor. Forty-eight percent have a favorable view of Stefanowski, while 43% have an unfavorable view of him. Seven percent are unsure, and 2% have never heard of Stefanowski.
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Ned Lamont?
| Frequency | Percent | Valid Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
| Very favorable | 391 | 39.1 | 39.1 | 39.1 |
| Somewhat favorable | 174 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 56.5 |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 123 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 68.8 |
| Very unfavorable | 286 | 28.6 | 28.6 | 97.4 |
| Unsure | 26 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 99.9 |
| Never heard of this person | 1 | .1 | .1 | 100.0 |
| Total | 1000 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Bob Stefanowski?
| Frequency | Percent | Valid Percent | Cumulative Percent | |
| Very favorable | 287 | 28.7 | 28.7 | 28.7 |
| Somewhat favorable | 190 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 47.6 |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 132 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 60.8 |
| Very unfavorable | 301 | 30.1 | 30.1 | 90.9 |
| Unsure | 69 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 97.8 |
| Never heard of this person | 22 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 100.0 |
| Total | 1000 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
“Gov. Lamont is very popular,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “We’ve seen this in all of our polling here. He rivals Gov. Charlie Baker in Massachusetts and is one of the most popular governors in the country, which is very interesting considering he had a very tough election against Bob stepping out back in 2018, winning by only about three or four points. So, to see his numbers improve in what many consider to be a republican wave year really speaks to what he’s done in office.”
The pollster said in a natural midterm election swing, you will see the incumbent party lose seats. Despite low approval ratings for President Joe Biden, this poll shows Lamont has a safety net, and it could be in the youth vote.
Among likely voters, the latest poll shows that 18-34 (58%) and those 65 and over (57%) are Lamont’s biggest supporters. The middle leans more toward Republicans.
Lamont and Stefanowski issued statements to News regarding the poll.
“The people of Connecticut are ready for another term that builds on the progress we have made over the past four years,” Lamont’s spokesperson said.
“Our internal polls and feedback from the public show a different race,” Stefanowski said.
On Wednesday, we’ll reveal the numbers in the race for U.S. Senate and look at what voters think about early voting in Connecticut.
The survey of Connecticut voters was conducted Oct. 19-21. The margin of error +/- 3 percentage points.
