NEW HAVEN, Conn. (WTNH) — With the midterm elections less than two weeks away, News 8 teamed up with The Hill and Emerson College Polling to launch our third and final exclusive poll of this election cycle.

The 5th Congressional District race is shaping up to be a competitive one. The district stretches from New Britain to Torrington to Danbury in western Connecticut.

This race has the eyes of both the Democratic Congressional Committee and the Republican House Leadership Fund. Each wants the seat to change the balance of power in Congress. More than $7 million in political ads has been spent thus far.

If the election for US Congress were held today, who would you vote for at this time?

Republican George Logan is up by one point — 48% to 47% — over incumbent Democrat Jahana Hayes. Four percent is undecided. This race is within the margin of error.

FrequencyPercentValid PercentCumulative Percent
Democrat Jahana Hayes23647.347.347.3
Republican George Logan24048.048.095.3
Someone else2.4.495.7

There is a gender divide among voters: 55% of women say they will vote to re-elect Hayes; 57% of men say they will vote for Logan.

When it comes to independent voters, they are breaking for the Republicans — Logan gets 53% of them to Hayes’ 38%.

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Jahana Hayes?

A majority of voters (51%) have a favorable view of Hayes, while 46% have an unfavorable view of the congresswoman. Three percent are unsure of their opinion of Hayes.

FrequencyPercentValid PercentCumulative Percent
Very favorable17434.834.834.8
Somewhat favorable8216.416.451.2
Somewhat unfavorable397.97.959.1
Very unfavorable18837.637.696.7
Never heard of this person0.0.0100.0

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of George Logan?

FrequencyPercentValid PercentCumulative Percent
Very favorable13527.027.027.0
Somewhat favorable8917.817.844.7
Somewhat unfavorable6813.613.658.3
Very unfavorable11422.722.781.0
Never heard of this person346.86.8100.0

Unfavorable rates show 46% for Hayes and 36% for Logan, and 12% are unsure who Logan is and 7% have never heard of him.

“It will be interesting in the next two weeks what happens as voters really tune in and that 20% either likes him or dislikes him,” said Spencer Kimball, the executive director at Emerson College Polling. “That will make the difference in this race.”

“I’m laser-focused on continuing to talk to as many voters as possible before Election Day. and our team is working double time to get out the vote, the only poll that matters is on Nov. 8,” Logan told News 8 following the release of the poll results. 

Barbara Ellis, Hayes’ campaign manager, sent News 8 a statement:

“This poll doesn’t change our strategy of working hard to get out our message and turn out voters. We always operate as if we’re down. This poll seems to reflect that national trends and the millions of GOP PAC spending against Rep. Hayes are penetrating. Yet, most people who have seen Jahana Hayes and her challenger side by side– or look at their records– walk away seeing Hayes as the stronger candidate, as the candidate that is more invested in every part of the district. He’s a generic Republican, which is increasingly aligning with the fringe right, while Jahana Hayes is representative of the district. A vote for George Logan is a vote to give people like Marjorie Taylor Green direct power over our lives. We know that the people of the 5th aren’t looking for that and we’ll continue to amplify her work and the contrast.”

Earlier this week, we released poll results focusing on the races for governor and U.S. Senate. We also looked at what issues are motivating voters to cast their ballots and early voting in Connecticut.

The survey of Connecticut voters was conducted Oct. 19-21. The margin of error +/- 3 percentage points.