Chris Murray Model shows when CT could see coronavirus peak


(WTNH) — In the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, one question on our mind is: When when will we reach the peak?

Known as the “Chris Murray Model” – created by Dr. Christopher Murray and researchers in Washington state – frequently updated data from the University of Washington shows when each US state or country around the world is forecasted to see a peak in both the use of hospital resources and coronavirus deaths.

According to this model, Connecticut is projected to reach the peak of daily deaths in just two weeks; the latest data shows we could see as many as 138 deaths on April 22.

Graph: University of Washington 4/8/2020

In contrast, New York is just one day away from reaching its projected peak of daily deaths and could see as many as 780 deaths on April 9.

In 13 days, the model projects Connecticut to experience peak need for hospital beds, ICUs, and ventilators. By April 21, we would need over 6,700 hospital beds, over 1,300 ICU beds, and 1,153 ventilators. There are currently 1,738 hospital beds and 99 ICU beds available in Connecticut per the Chris Murray Model numbers.

By August 4, the data projects Connecticut will have a total of 4,003 coronavirus-related deaths but the final number could range between 1,300 and 10,100.

Graph: University of Washington 4/8/2020

As of Wednesday, April 8, There are a total of 7,781 confirmed coronavirus cases in the state, and a total of 227 deaths.

To see the complete report from The University of Washington, click here.

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