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COVID-19 model predictions for Connecticut updated into July

Coronavirus

HARTFORD, Conn. (WTNH) — Hartford Healthcare and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology‘s model of predicting COVID-19 in Connecticut was just updated and released on the website COVIDAnalytics.

While it shows active hospitalized cases of coronavirus decreasing as we approach summer, it also reveals the number of death predictions in the state rising, with 4,408 by July 15, 2020. Connecticut is currently at 3,826 according to the state’s website.

RELATED: CT coronavirus hospitalizations drop once again; cases top 41,500, deaths reach 3,826

For modeling, scientists take into consideration things such as government policies in place, schools being closed, and the absence of large gatherings.

News 8 asked Dimitris Bertsimas, Dean of Analytics at M.I.T. about a possible second wave of COVID-19 in Connecticut this fall.

“Assuming we have some reasonable measures, mainly we don’t open society completely, I don’t expect, in Connecticut anyway, a very significant second wave,” said Bertsimas. He said factors such as people visiting our state from countries with high COVID-19 infection rates could present a challenge.

RELATED: New COVID-19 modeling data predicts numbers in Connecticut into August, recent protests affecting model

Any type of wave of cases in the fall could present a challenge with timing, says Hartford Healthcare’s Chief Clinical Officer, Doctor Ajay Kumar.

“The complexity is we’re going to be hit by flu season and the COVID at the same time,” says Doctor Kumar.

He says they will be ready, and also weighed in on a possible coronavirus vaccine.

“It probably would be early next year, so we have some time to go. The fight is still not over yet, we’re still not out of the woods. We’re going to have to continue to watch our physical distancing, the things we’ve been talking about the hand hygiene, the sanitary measures, we need to continue to focus on that,” says Kumar.

Copyright 2020 Nexstar Broadcasting, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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