Latest M.I.T. COVID-19 data tracking model for Connecticut projects more hospitalizations, deaths into March


NEW HAVEN, Conn. (WTNH) — Almost one year into COVID-19 predictive modeling, researchers from M.I.T. say their model case prediction results for Connecticut and other states and some countries are proving to be accurate.

“It has correctly predicted second waves, not only in Connecticut but around the world and so forth,” says Dimitris Bertsimas, Ph.D., Associate Dean for the Master of Business Analytics at MIT.

The MIT model uses some data from Hartford Healthcare. It is part of the CDC ensemble model, he says one of the better performing models. For Connecticut, the projection shows detected cases projected to reach 530,501 by March 13, 2021.

Active hospitalizations are projected to be at 4,297 by that same date. Detected deaths, which are now around 7,000 are projected to be at 9,995.

There is something positive that Dr. Bertsimas says could have his researchers adjusting those numbers in the future.

“In the next few weeks, we are going to take into consideration vaccinations in a good way because as you know vaccinations will decrease the infection rates.”

He says widespread rollouts of several vaccines could dramatically bring their numbers down but says the logistics have to be much improved.

His team has also not factored in variant strains of COVID-19 now being seen in the US. Dr. Bertsimas believes it is too early and it is not yet known how widespread cases could be and where.

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