Researchers at Hartford HealthCare, MIT say CT is hitting coronavirus peak, add deaths could triple by mid-June


HARTFORD, Conn. (WTNH) — Researchers say Connecticut is in its coronavirus peak this week.

Hospitalizations have trended down for the sixth day in a row, and now, Governor Ned Lamont is saying that positive cases might be slowing down as well.

On Monday, researchers with Hartford HealthCare and MIT said the state’s peak — which is based on the number of active cases — would weigh heavily on the next three to four days. It was predicted last week that Connecticut would peak on April 26 or 27.

“Our hospitalizations seem to have peaked, and we’ve seen some decline in the last several days across the state of Connecticut,” said Dr. Ajay Kumar, Executive Vice President and Chief Clinical Officer for Hartford HealthCare. “We are at the peak at the moment, and we are going to stay at the plateau period of the peak to see how we’re going to trend going forward.”

The pair’s model shows that the state’s death rate could hit 6,000 by mid-June.

“The proximity of New York where there’s a significant amount of density and maybe the timing of our social distancing effort and the scrutiny around that, and we were behind in the testing early on,” Kumar explained. “I think all of those factors could contribute to that.”

He added that passing the peak doesn’t mean things will go back to normal.

“We are going to be in this for a long time. distancing is going to continue all the way into the fall, and it’s not going to get eased out earlier on.”

He said densely populated areas like Fairfield County sill worry him, adding that nursing homes are a “wildcard” projection and could really impact the numbers.

On Monday, Lamont said if the downward trend continues or another 7-10 days, he would talk about slowly reopening parts of the state.

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